False Prophets

  • Market Perspectives
  • Office of the CIO

In Summary

Niels Bohr, the father of quantum mechanics and a Nobel laureate, once said, “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” Indeed, Wall Street and the Fed were widely off the market in their 2022 forecasts, and 2023 remains difficult to call as the outlook hinges on the degree of growth deceleration and the Fed’s reaction function. Despite the difficulty, this report examines potential market and macro developments for 2023 presupposed on historical patterns.