Respect the Lags

  • Market Perspectives
  • Office of the CIO

In Summary

In this month’s report, Jimmy Chang, Chief Investment Officer of the Rockefeller Global Family Office, examines how the current business cycle has managed to defy gravity despite having checked off eight of ten events in the count down to recession, leading the consensus to embrace an immaculate disinflation and economic soft landing narrative. However, with long bond yields having crept higher and the Fed likely to keep policy rates higher for longer, it is still premature to dismiss the recession risk as the most aggressive tightening cycle in four decades will have long and variable lags.